In a recent 60 Minutes appearance, Andrew Ross Sorkin said something that may already be landing in your inbox: “We will have a crash. I just cannot tell you when, and I cannot tell you how deep.”
I have been a wealth advisor for over three decades, working primarily with high-net-worth families and business owners. Statements like this one surface at some point in every market cycle. Markets have always corrected, and they always will. The question is what a serious investor is actually supposed to do with that information.
Sorkin points to structural shifts: the loosening of certain regulatory guardrails, growing systemic reliance on debt, and the push to expand private equity into retirement accounts. For families in or near retirement, where sequence-of-returns risk carries the greatest consequence, these are trends worth watching closely. His observations about overconfidence and the illusion of stability during periods of strong returns also reflect patterns that have appeared, with some regularity, late in long expansions.
A prediction without a timeline or a magnitude is not an actionable forecast. It is a restatement of how markets work. The 1929 comparison carries weight as a historical lesson, but that crisis unfolded without deposit insurance, without circuit breakers, without a central bank willing and able to act, and without the hard-won lessons of 2008. None of that makes the current environment immune to a serious correction. It does, however, matter considerably when thinking about depth, duration, and recovery.
What I have seen over many years and through several difficult markets is that the greatest risk in moments like this is not the correction itself. It is the client who reads the headline and arrives the next morning ready to act on anxiety rather than on a clear assessment of their own situation. Moving to cash, abandoning a well-constructed allocation, or walking away from a long-term plan in response to a forecast that offers no specifics is precisely the kind of decision that is hardest to recover from, financially and psychologically.
If your financial plan is grounded in your actual goals, your time horizon, and a realistic view of the income you will need and when, a television forecast should not alter your course. If you are not certain that it is, that is the conversation worth having now, before markets provide the occasion to have it under duress.
The work of a experienced advisor is not to predict what markets will do. It is to make sure that whatever they do, you are prepared for it. If Sorkin’s interview gave you reason to pause, review your allocation, examine your exposure to sequence risk if retirement is within reach, and stress-test the assumptions your income plan depends on.
A serious response to “a crash is coming” is not repositioning out of fear. It is knowing, with confidence, that your plan was built for this kind of uncertainty.
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Sharon Olson, CFP®, CEPA is Managing Principal of Olson Wealth Group, along with their Inspired Life Family Office® services, based in Minnesota. She advises high-net-worth families and business owners on wealth management, retirement, estate planning, and business succession.Securities and Advisory Services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC. The information provided here is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Individuals should consult qualified professionals regarding their specific circumstances. ART Tracking # 1117804